短期宜做空欧元兑美元期货

来源: 和讯网 期货日报时间:2019-06-20 09:47:01
年初至今,欧元兑美元汇率贬值了约2.3%,而2018年全年贬值幅度达到4.46%。2019年5月底至6月上旬,欧元兑美元汇率一度反弹了1.8%,主要驱动力来自欧元区一季度GDP增速意外好于预期,以及市场对美联储降息预期升温。

一国汇率强弱,中短期取决于货币政策、通胀水平和货币市场利差,长期取决于经济增长潜力或者前景。从经济数据来看,美国经济指标开始走弱,而欧元区经济表现同样不佳,美国和欧洲经济进入“比惨”的阶段,这意味着欧元兑美元汇率继续大幅贬值的空间很小。

数据显示,5月欧元区制造业PMI继续处于荣枯分水岭下方,其中欧元区、德国和法国5月制造业PMI终值分别为47.7、44.3和50.6,均和前值持平,德国和欧元区整体制造业处于收缩状态之中。6月欧元区Sentix投资信心指数下降至-3.3,前值为5.3,2018年12月至今的7个月中有6个月份为负值。消费者信心指数也低迷,2019年5月欧元区19国消费者信心指数为-6.5,略好于上月的-7.3,但居民消费意愿依旧偏低。

美国经济方面,数据显示美国JOLTS职位空缺降幅超预期,初申失业金人数意外增加,美国就业增长可能出现边际放缓。另外,美国通胀不及预期,5月CPI同比升1.8%,低于前值2.0%和预期的1.9%;核心通胀同比升2.0%,也低于前值2.1%和预期的2.1%。PPI与前值持平。不过,美国5月零售销售环比上涨0.5%,前值由-0.2%修正为0.3%,这在一定程度上缓解了市场对二季度美国居民消费的担忧。

英国经济增长更加不妙,英国4月GDP环比下滑0.4%,各分项指标均出现不同程度下滑。其中,生产部门指数环比下滑2.7%,制造业环比下滑3.9%,建筑业环比下滑0.4%。尤其是汽车制造业,4月英国汽车产量同比下滑44.5%。

衡量欧元区和美国经济整体表现的花旗经济意外指数显示,截至6月17日,花旗美国经济意外指数为-63.2,花旗欧洲经济意外指数为-14.7,这意味着欧洲经济下滑势头较美国更缓和。统计发现,2003年1月至今,花旗经济意外指数中美国和欧洲的差值和欧元兑美元的汇率呈现明显的负相关性,意味着花旗美国经济意外指数与花旗欧洲经济意外指数的差值越大,欧元兑美元贬值幅度越大。当前这个差值已经缩减至负值,意味着欧元兑美元继续大幅贬值的空间有限。

图为花旗美国经济意外指数-花旗欧洲经济意外指数(差值)和欧元兑美元汇率走势

图为花旗美国经济意外指数-花旗欧洲经济意外指数(差值)和欧元兑美元汇率走势

不过目前欧洲经济面临两大风险:英国“硬脱欧”风险和意大利财政预算问题,欧元尚不具备反弹的动力。6月13日,英国进行的首轮国会议员投票中,前外交大臣鲍里斯·约翰逊支持率最高,此前鲍里斯·约翰逊表示如果他接任英国首相,尽管无协议脱欧不是他的目标,但是英国必须做好在10月31日无协议脱欧的准备,延迟脱欧意味着保守党将在大选中失败,这意味着英国“无协议脱欧”风险上升。

一直以来,欧元区作为货币同盟,缺乏财政纪律有效约束是欧元区经济增长前景不被好看的主因,例如2008年金融?;?,为刺激经济增长,“欧猪五国”中的意大利、西班牙等国大举借债,公共债务不断攀升,一度引发“欧债?;?rdquo;。近期,欧元区财政“统一预算”达成初步框架,欧元区财长会议于6月14日就总体框架达成妥协,初步定为“促进竞争力和趋同性预算工具”(BICC),但就注资细节还存在分歧。即使在欧元区整体预算框架下,各成员国仍运用各国自己的财政工具来处理本国和地区事务,这意味着欧元区财政真正统一还有很长的路要走。鉴于意大利经济形势表现脆弱和债务高企,“统一预算”机制建立还是无法缓解市场对欧元区经济增长的担忧。

从经济前景来看,欧债?;⒑?,欧盟加强了对各成员国财政的约束,政府部门杠杆率下降,这意味着欧洲央行再次爆发主权债务?;姆缦障陆?。而美国的公共债务高企,没有去化过程,使得美联储就算进入了加息周期,加息力度也很温和。BIS数据显示,截至2018年四季度,美国和欧元区政府杠杆率分别为98.7%和85.1%,而美国和欧元区非金融部门杠杆率分别为74.4%和105%,美国和欧元区都不敢轻易大幅加息,欧元兑美元反弹取决于经济不同时期的表现。

因此,交易欧元兑美元的策略是短期(1个月之内)可考虑继续卖出芝商所欧元兑美元期货(6E)合约,中期(2—3个月)寻机买入芝商所欧元兑美元期货(6E)捕捉欧元的反弹机会。 (作者单位:宝城期货)

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