央行定向支持中小行 存单发行回暖但分化继续

来源:第一财经日报时间:2019-07-17 09:00:42

[在跨半年末后资金持续回笼、MLF到期、较大的缴税和缴准压力等背景下,外部流动性环境近期已承受不小的压力。但7月15日央行并未如以往税期阶段重启逆回购操作,而是投放中长期资金,一定程度上反映银行体系流动性仍然较为充裕。]

从“较高水平”到“合理充裕水平”,央行近日对银行体系流动性总量的描述发生变化,与此同时,流动性投放也不再沉寂。

7月15日,央行发布公告称增量续做2000亿元MLF(中期借贷便利),对冲到期量后,实际净投放115亿元,此为7月以来的首次流动性投放。另外,针对服务县域的农村商业银行的第三次降准同步实施,释放长期资金约1000亿元。

接受第一财经记者采访的多位人士表示,小幅超额续作MLF加上定向降准落地,将缓解缴税、逆回购到期等压力,也体现了央行针对流动性结构性分化的呵护。未来,短端利率可能继续上行,不过长期而言,资金面并不具备显著收紧的基础。

还需注意的是,尽管针对流动性分层现象监管层推出了多种措施,但同业存单市场仍存分化,金融体系对于风险正重新定价。有观点称,适度的流动性分层现象会在长期内持续存在。

对中小行再次提供定向支持

与此前的频频动作相比,央行近来在逆回购操作方面略显静默。自6月24日至今,央行已经连续16个工作日未开展逆回购操作,侧面反映银行间流动性的充裕程度。值得一提的是,截止到上周末,全部逆回购已到期,逆回购余额下降至0。

不过,较高的流动性状态已发生变化,央行在最近的公开市场业务交易公告中提到,受央行逆回购到期和税期等因素影响,银行体系流动性总量有所下降,但仍处于合理充裕水平。

这在货币利率上有直观表现,上周银行间质押式回购利率DR001和DR007双双反弹,DR001上行118bp收于2.24%;DR007收于2.49%,较前一周提高32bp;上海银行间同业拆借利率3个月期Shibor收于2.60%,较上一周下降1bp。

到了本周,利率上涨趋势延续,截至周一下午收盘,DR001加权平均利率上涨报2.6165%,DR007报2.6633%;各期限Shibor也全面上行,其中隔夜Shibor上涨38.25bp报2.6175%,7天期Shibor上涨11bp报2.6690%。

与此同时,为对冲税期等因素的影响,7月15日,央行进行了本月以来的首次流动性投放,在对当日到期的1885亿元中期借贷便利(MLF)等量续做的基础上,对中小银行开展增量操作,总操作量2000亿元,利率维持3.3%不变,实现流动性净投放115亿元;另外,针对服务县域的农村商业银行的第三次降准同步落地,释放长期资金约1000亿元。

事实上,在跨半年末后资金持续回笼、MLF到期、较大的缴税和缴准压力等背景下,外部流动性环境近期已承受不小的压力。但7月15日央行并未如以往税期阶段重启逆回购操作,而是投放中长期资金,一定程度上反映银行体系流动性仍然较为充裕。

中信证券固收首席分析师明明告诉第一财经记者,无论是MLF操作还是定向降准,昨日央行流动性投放表现为大行等额续做,小行超额支持的特点,体现了央行针对流动性结构性分化的呵护。

在明明看来,目前流动性分层情况依然存在,尽管6月末金融机构超储率回升至2%,但银行体系内部流动性分布仍然不均,质押式逆回购最高利率仍然大幅偏离加权利率。他分析称,“本次MLF仍然延续6月19日MLF对中小银行定向增量操作,加之对县域农商行定向降准,央行主要目标仍然是补充中小银行中长期流动性,结构性流动性投放应对流动性分层。”

展望7月中下旬,多位业内人士认为,资金面并不具备显著收紧的基础,不会成为制约长端利率的因素,但短端利率可能继续上行,后续还需关注7月23日5020亿元MLF到期,届时MLF定向支持、TMLF操作增量、定向降准均有可能开展。

中国人民银行货币政策司司长孙国峰日前亦提到,下一步,央行会综合考虑银行体系的流动性状况、货币市场利率走势以及市场预期等因素,灵活把握公开市场操作以及其他操作的时机、力度和节奏,保持流动性合理充裕,维护货币市场利率平稳运行,满足各类金融机构合理的市场融资需求,为金融体系平稳运行提供适宜的货币金融环境。

存单发行回暖但分化继续

为了缓解流动性分层问题,上个月监管层的多次举措,如对中小行发行的同业存单提供信用增进等,使得同业存单市场回暖,同业存单发行速度和发行成功率(实际发行金额与计划发行金额之比)有所恢复,发行利率同步下滑。

数据显示,截至7月15日,本月同业存单实际发行规模为6365.03亿元,发行成功率约82.5%,平均发行利率为2.9639%,较6月份下跌124个bp。

但还需注意的是,不同评级的同业存单利率走势仍存分化。AAA评级同业存单发行利率下降显著,由5月份的3.10%左右下降至如今的2.88%;AA+及以下评级同业存单的发行利率则从3.19%上升到了3.36%。这一走势的不同体现了市场对于金融机构风险的重新定价。

根据《同业存单管理暂行办法》,固定利率的同业存单发行利率主要参考同期限上海银行间同业拆借利率定价。国信证券宏观和债券首席分析师董德志分析,近期除了AAA和AAA-评级估值冲高回落,其他偏低等级估值曲线中枢上移,低等级同业存单的评级间利差拉大,说明同业存单市场发生信用重定价。

另外,在认购方面,分化同样存在。数据显示,截至目前,AAA评级同业存单实际发行5063.7亿元,认购率为90.7%;AA+评级同业存单实际发行1055.93亿元,认购率70.09%;AA评级同业存单实际发行117.7亿元,认购率仅31.7%。

实际上,自6月以来,AA+及以下的较低评级同业存单认购率低迷情况并未有明显改善,多数认购率在50%以下。光大证券固收首席分析师张旭对第一财经表示,流动性分层是结构性问题,适度的流动性分层现象会在长期内持续存在,可使用精准施策的结构性政策来应对。

除此,非银方面,尽管7月以来DR001数度跌破1%,但上交所R007的中枢为5.16%,明显高于2019年1月至4月的均值4.05%,且R007日内成交的最高值数次突破10%,反映出非银流动性仍然偏紧。

张旭进一步称,过度流动性分层的深层原因可能是部分金融机构的过度风控,或可采用“过量流动性”化解。也有业内观点提到,随着定向流动性支持方式增多,流动性分层料逐步缓解。

(文章来源:第一财经日报)

责任编辑:FD31
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